San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: October 2018

market report

SF Unicorn IPOs

  • Five San Francisco-based tech “unicorns” are planning on going public in 2019
  • Uber, AirBNB, Stripe, Pinterest, and Lyft
  • Once they have their IPOs, their employees will likely take their cash windfalls and purchase homes in and around San Francisco, driving sales prices even higher

The Beige Book

  • More strong economic news came from the Federal Reserve Bank’s September Beige Book economic report which shows continuing strong job and wage growth in the San Francisco region
  • It notes that the real estate market activity has continued to expand, in spite of higher interest rates, and the low inventory coupled with strong demand pushed prices and rents higher

Measure of CEO Confidence

  • The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence, which had slipped in the second quarter, declined again in the third quarter
  • This report is a window into planned capital spending, expansion and hiring, all of which can have a significant impact on jobs and hence home-purchasing demand
  • Yet it may not reflect the more bullish, expansionary tech sector dominating San Francisco’s economy

Peninsula Real Estate Market Update – July 2018

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Summary:

It definitely feels like the dog days of summer in the San Mateo County real estate market. The trend is continuing. Properties are not selling as fast, nor with as many offers, as has been the norm. This may be somewhat seasonal as many people turn their attention to vacations and travel over the summer, with real estate taking a back seat. It may be that the market heated up too fast earlier this year, at an unsustainable rate, so it’s self-correcting. It’s actually a good thing. The rate that prices were increasing by was clearly not sustainable over the long term. Interestingly, this trend is showing up mostly in single family home prices. Condos and townhome sales do not seem to be affected yet.

Here’s a summary of the numbers.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: March 2018

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As of the end of February, there were fewer total home, condo and loft sales in the first two months of 2018 than in any of the previous ten years. And while it’s impossible to say exactly what is causing the low number of sales, it is possible that buyer fatigue following six straight years of rising prices, interest rates jumps, and stock market volatility may all be contributing.

At the same time, the median sold price per square foot for a single family home broke the $1000 threshold for the first time in San Francisco. That is up almost 150% since it bottomed out at $408 in January, 2012. And, enough buyers are still buying that prices are still rising. February’s median home price crossed $1,700,000, another first.

Single Family Homes:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,501,667 is up 17% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 7.4% while sales are down 9.7%.

February’s inventory of 1.4 months is 26% lower than in 2017.

80% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 113% in February.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,096,667 is up 3.13% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 14% while sales were up 9.2%.

February’s inventory of 1.9 months is 30% lower than in 2017.

59% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 103% in February.

January Market Report – 2017 in Review

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2017 saw two foundational trends continue in the San Francisco real estate housing market. Prices continued their trend upward while inventory continued its trend downward. It marked the sixth straight year for higher sales prices for both single family homes and condo/loft/TIC’s.

Two changes, one already implemented and one in the making, may have a significant impact on the housing market, in San Francisco and across the country. First, the tax changes may impact buyer behavior with the reduction in deductibility of mortgage interest and possibly state income taxes and property taxes, with the latter two still up in the air.

Second, the projected three hikes in the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve are anticipated to result in mortgage rate increases of ½ to ¾ percent by the end of 2018. Additional factors will affect mortgage rates so it’s impossible to predict where they’ll end up and how they’ll get there. No expert expects them to stay as low as they are currently.

Single Family Homes:
2017’s median sales price is up 12.2% from 2016.

There were 5.5% fewer new listings in 2017, and 1.5% more sales.

Inventory ended 2017 down 31% from 2016, the lowest level in 10 years

78.7% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 113.4% for 2017.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
2017’s median sales price is up 9.3% from 2016.

There were 6.2% fewer new listings in 2017, and 3.4% more sales.

Inventory ended 2017 down 24% from 2016, the lowest level in 3 years.

59.5% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 101.9% for 2017.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: December 2017

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The November San Francisco real estate market moved along pretty much as expected, with continued low inventory and the majority of properties selling above list price. Condo prices hit an all-time high of $1,230,000.

The proposed tax changes are very likely to affect future buyer behavior as they lose purchasing power with the loss of full deductibility of state income taxes and property taxes. That loss of purchasing power will likely dampen sales price increases. Stay tuned…

Single Family Homes:
November’s median sales price eased off a bit from October’s all-time high of $1,588,000, down to $1,500,000. However, prices are still up 10.7% compared to last year.

While new listings typically fall off in November, this year’s were exceptionally low at just 112, 19% fewer than last November. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 5% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 4.2%. Inventory remains very low at a 1.4 months supply, the lowest level since December 2016.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, staying at 115%, much higher than last November’s 107%. 81% of single family homes sold above the list price.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
As mentioned above, the median sold price hit an all-time high in November. On a three-month rolling average, the median sold price is up 7.7% compared to last year.

Inventory is down 23% from October and 19% compared to November, 2016. Like single family homes, the number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 5.6%, while sales are up 3.2%.

59% of condo/loft/TIC listings sold above list price, down from 67% in October and 64% last November. The median overbid was 102%, the same as last November.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Update: November 2017

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The Swiss bank UBS published its Global Real Estate Bubble Index recently, stating that San Francisco is the most overvalued real estate market in the US. Their analysis focused on the rise of home prices in San Francisco compared to the rise in median incomes. Their report stated that home prices have risen 65% since 2012 while the average income has risen only 10%.

While they are, essentially, correct about the rise in the housing prices (taking both single family and condo prices into account), they are off on the income rise. Per the US Department of Commerce, median household income rose 42% from 2012-2016. While there is no income data out yet for 2017, we can safely assume that it has risen in 2017, given the incredibly tight job market. Therefor, income appreciation has lagged at least 40% behind housing cost appreciation, resulting in a significant drop in housing affordability.

Single Family Homes:
October’s median sales price jumped sharply to an all-time high of $1,588,000, up 13.4% above October, 2016.

The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 5% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 2.9%. This has caused inventory to drop 29% compared to last October and is at its lowest level, 1.9 months, since February.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, up to 115.6%, higher than last October’s 108%.

83% of single family homes sold above the list price, and the median sales price was 113% of the list price.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
Median sold prices are dead even with last October’s at $1,140,000. They are up 5.8% on a 3-month rolling average compared to last year.

Following a very big month in the number of condo/TIC sales, 303, inventory is down 16% from September and 26% compared to last October. Like single family homes, the number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 6.6%, while sales are up 2.7%.

The flurry of sales brought sold prices up above list prices, to 104%, the highest level since May, 2016. This compares to this September’s 101%. And, 67% sold above list price, up from 55% in September.

Southern/Central Marin County Real Estate Report October 2017

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Single Family Homes:
September’s median sales price dropped slightly from August to $1,440,000. Prices are up 5.4% year-on-year.

Inventory continues to be very low, at just 2.2 months, the result of fewer homes coming on the market while sales stay fairly constant. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 7.6% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 4.2%.

The median percentage of list price received was 98%, up just slightly from August’s 97%. This is off from April’s peak of 103% and down again from July’s 99%. It is up from last September’s 97%.

Condo/Townhomes:
Because there are fewer Condo/townhouse sales, looking at a three-month rolling average for median prices makes the most sense, so that’s what we’re going to be looking at. On that basis, median sold prices are 4.7%, to $696,667, compared to September 2016’s $665,667.

In September, the median percentage of list price received was 100%, down from September, 2016’s 101%.

The number of condo/townhome listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 4.9%. And, like single family homes, sales are up over that same time frame by 9.7%. This combination has led to the exceptionally low current inventory of 1.4 months, half of what it was last year at this time.

Peninsula Real Estate Market Update – September 2017

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Summary: Heading into the Fall, the real estate market on the Peninsula remains a strong seller’s market. Most metrics are slightly off from July, but remain near record highs. Looking at rolling 3- or 6- month averages reduces the seasonal fluctuation of these values and shows that the real estate market continues to rise. The exceptionally robust local economy fuels these strong sales prices and low inventory numbers.

Details: The San Mateo County single family home median sales price dipped a bit from last month, ending at $1,370,000. The continued tight supply coupled with strong demand saw overbids up slightly from last month to an average of 108.1% over list price.

The median sale price of condos was up again in August, at $748,950. Strong demand pushed overbids up from last month, to 105.9%.

The number of new single-family home listings coming on the market was up 9.1% from July. Due to the seasonal changes in inventory levels, comparing rolling 6-month averages is more meaningful, and shows inventory down 5.2% overall compared with the same period last year. Closed sales were up 4.9% from July, and up 2.7% comparing a rolling 6- month average to last year. These factors have led to another drop in inventory levels, down to 1.0 months. It’s still a strong seller’s market.

There was a huge 29.6% drop in the number of new condos/townhomes coming on the market this August versus August 2016, though the rolling 6-month change is a more modest 8.1%. August inventory stands at 0.7 months, a decline of 56.3% compared to July 2016, and 43.2% comparing a rolling 3-month average.