April 2016 – A Tale of Two Markets?
While median prices of San Francisco Single Family Homes rose 11.41% in 2015 to end the
year at $1,235,000, it was the smallest annual percentage increase since 2011. And they are
still below their peak of $1,350,000 in May 2015. But Q1 2016 may signal a resumption of
the torrid pace of Q1:2012-Q2:2015, with a jump of 5.6%, the biggest Q1 median price
percentage increase in a decade.
Conversely, Resale Condo-Loft median prices had their first Q1 drop since 2011. And, it was
the second time in the past three quarters that they dropped – Q3:2015 was down 6.9%.
Resale Condo-Lofts have dropped to a median sales price of $1,100,000, down 4.35% from
Both the Single Family Homes and Resale Condo-Loft Days on Market are following the
typical seasonal patterns of spiking during the holiday season and dropping with the start
of the Spring buying season.
And while both are slightly higher this year than in 2015, at 16 and 20 days respectively,
they are both near historical lows.
Months Supply of Inventory is up slightly over 2015’s levels at 1.9 months for Single Family
Homes and 2.2 months for Resale Condo-Lofts, continuing the strong sellers market.
Here as well, the Single Family Homes and Resale Condo-Lofts New Listings follow the
typical seasonal patterns of dropping during the holiday season and popping back up with
the start of the Spring buying season.
However, of concern is that there is a cumulative 85 fewer new listings for Single Family
Homes on the market in January, February and March in 2016 than there were in 2015.
Resale Condo-Lofts had the reverse trend, with 32 more new listings on the market in
January, February and March 2016 than in the same months 2015. This helps explain the
longer Days on Market and downward median sales price trend.
Pipeline Could Deliver Huge Inventory of New
As of December, 2015, the San Francisco Planning Department’s Development Pipeline
had 62,514 net new units in various stages of development, from planning applications
filed to building permits issued and under construction. The graph below shows the
breakdown of the development by the Planning Department’s Planning District.
Of the 8,933 Affordable Housing Units planned, 7,056 of them are in just three
districts: Bayshore (3,449); South of Market (2,682); and South Central (925).
The information contained in this report is taken from a variety of sources including SFARMLS, SPUR, the City of San Francisco Planning Department, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and others. The data may have errors, omissions and be subject to revisions and is not warranted. It is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Questions may be directed to Keller Williams San Francisco | 415.483.9285