SF MLS Home Sales: February 15, 2010 – August 15, 2010

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes in buying trends, as well as by changes in market values.

Dollar per Square Foot ($/sq.ft.) is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms and apartments built without permit, decks, patios or yards (all of which can still add significant value). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable or unreported altogether. (Out of every 10 sales, perhaps 6 – 8 gave square footage, from which the average is calculated.) In the charts below, neighborhoods are listed in order of median sales price. A price followed by a “k” references thousands of dollars; if followed by an “m”, it signifies millions. “REO” refers to the sale of bank-owned properties, typically pursuant to foreclosure.

$1,150,000 //Russian Hill // Broadway BR/BA: 2 units PKG: 1 Brief Description: Classic SF Units with fabulous original detail. One Vacant one rented. Property Website (in any): www.2unitsonbroadway.com

$989,000 //Castro // Ford St BR/BA: 2/1.5 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Charming top floor flat in 2-unit building. Double parlor can be used as 3rd bedroom or office. Edwardian details and hardwood floors throughout. In-unit laundry; shared south-facing yard with workshop and abundance of storage. Property Website (if Any): www.49fordstreet.com

$879,000 // South Beach // Bryant #107 BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Brick/Timber Converted loft 1500 sf remodeled 20ft ceilings Property Website (if any): www.355bryant.com

$829,000 // SOMA // Mission St. #513 BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: One of a kind corner unit on the Park Level at The Soma Grand. Abundant light from large windows on two sides and a tranquil view of the fifth floor park. 11 ft ceilings and Patio Terrace. Deeeded parking

$799,000 // Inner Richmond // Balboa @ 9th BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Top floor Marina style condo with shared backyard. Remodeled kitchen and baths, hardwood flrs and fire place

$779,000 //Bernal Heights // Precita Ave BR/BA: 2-Unit building PKG: 0 Brief Description: Charming Edwardian with two tenants that generate good rents. Big basement that could be garage. Yard

$699,000 //Central Richmond // Balboa @ 21st BR/BA: 2/1.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Top floor condo in 2 unit property, shared backyard. Open living, kitchen, dining. Gourmet kitchen, in-unit laundry. Bonus room/storage dn

$698,000 // NOPA // Central BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 0 Brief Description: On a tree-lined street located in the heart of the North Panhandle, steps to GG Park, Falletti Foods, Delessio Market and Cole Valley – is a lovely condo on two levels with direct access to an enchanting back-yard. Leased parking Property Website (if any): www.527central.com

$675,000 // Western Addition // Cleary Ct BR/BA: 3/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Rarely available, renovated end unit with windows on 3 sides. High up in the building; with views of Twin Peaks, the Bay and GG Bridge. Master suite with private bath. Beautiful walnut floors throughout.

$599,000 // Cole Valley // Carl BR/BA: 1/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Large gorgeous one BR condo in 6-unit walkup. Remolded kitchen, office nook, formal dining room w/fire place. Over 900 sq ft. Leased parking in building

Pocket Listing:
$1,099,000 //Noe Valley // Confidential/ Call Agent BR/BA: 3 /2.5 PKG: 1 Brief Description: This stunning renovated condo in Noe Valley has 3 generous bedrooms and 2 ∏ baths, as well as a separate office, large closets and is conveniently located near public transportation and shopping Property Website(in any): www.mynoecondo.com

Back-on-Market Listing:
$TBD // Oakland/Temescal // 349 42nd Street BR/BA: 3/1.25 PKG: 3 Brief Description: Charming 2-story Craftsman with all original detail, private deck. Property Website (if any): www.temescalcharmer.com

1323 Garden Street, San Luis Obispo
$1,300,000

Gallagher and Lindsey Realtors // Alameda

11381 Skyline Boulevard, Oakland CA
$3,290,000

Paragon Real Estate // San Francisco

3816 22nd Street, San Francisco (Noe Valley)
$4,800,000

1700 Monterey Boulevard, San Francisco (St. Francis Wood)
$1,950,000

The Grubb Co. // Piedmont, Berkeley, Oakland, Kensington


138 Wildwood Gardens, Piedmont
$2,395,000

Empire Realty Associates// Diablo, Lamorinda and Tri-Valley Areas


2315 Caballo Ranchero, Diablo
$1,895,000

1639 Via Romero, Alamo
$2,695,000

In the past week or two, there have been hundreds of sky-is-falling articles in every major media outlet about how home sales drastically slumped in July when compared with June and May, or as compared to July of last year, both nationally and in the Bay Area. And that this indicates that terrible times have returned to the real estate market.

But with statistics, context is everything, and these articles show a fundamental lack of understanding of current market context and, specifically, what’s going on in San Francisco.

The first chart below is of the last 2 years’ closed home sales in SF. July 2010 is indeed well below June and May 2010, as well as significantly below July 09 and July 08. However, this is almost completely a function of the fact that deals that would have naturally and typically accepted offers (gone “under contract”) in May 2010 were rushed into April so as to meet the Federal Tax Credit deadline. Because of that crush of accepted offers in April, closed sales in May and June soared way over the sales rate of past years, but the number of May accepted offers this year was much lower than normal. Typically, May is one of the highest months for accepted offers; the lowered number of accepted offers in May translated to a lowered number of July closings. Typically, July is one of the highest closed sales months because of the high number of accepted offers in May. With the unusual events this year, the numbers were thrown off – which created the dramatic percentage declines everyone is chattering on about.

Remember: closed sales are 30 – 60 days behind the market (the time of offers being negotiated and accepted). To get a sense of current market activity, one looks at accepted offers, as in the second chart below.

In the third chart, the Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) for SF houses and condos is shown over the past 2 years. MSI, at a moderately low 3.8 months of inventory, hasn’t budged in three months – again one can see the effect of the April tax credit rush on the chart — and it is almost exactly the same as in July 08 and July 09. (The lower the MSI, the hotter the market.)

The fourth chart shows average Days on Market (DOM) for SF houses and condos over the past 2 years. Again the Days-on-Market has been virtually unchanged for 6 months, also virtually unchanged from July of 2008 and July of 2009. (The lower the Days on Market, the hotter the market.)

The fifth chart, median sales prices for houses and condos in SF, shows virtually no change in median sales price from July of last year (though it has jogged up and down over the individual months).

None of this is to say that the market might not enter a new great depression tomorrow. It is to say that the most recent statistics don’t currently indicate any dramatic change in market conditions in San Francisco. The fact of the matter is that right now our market is relatively steady, balanced and healthy. We’ll have to wait to see what the future brings.

All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable — primarily Broker Metrics — but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.

click for larger image	Closed Home Sales – Past 25 Months For the reasons explained above, closed home sales did decline significantly in July 2010 when compared to June and May, and when compared to July 08 & 09.
click for larger image	Homes Accepting Offers Here we see the huge surge of accepted offers in April which (stealing normal May sales activity) led to the large decline in May. Thus May’s number of accepted offers is below past years. But the number of accepted offers in June 2010 are above last year’s. And accepted offers in July are above both July 2009 and July 2008. That is not an indication of a collapsing market. Yes, the market surged in April due to the expiring tax credit, but except for the initial effect on May accepted offers(and the resulting effect on July closings), the expiring tax credit hasn’t affected the number of accepted offers in June and July at all.
click for larger image	Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) Since the SF home market started recovering in spring 2009 from the “crash” of autumn 2008, Months’ Supply of Inventory has been very stable, delineating a relatively stable market, running typically between 3 to 4 months of inventory. This is generally considered a moderately low MSI, signifying a relatively strong and consistent buyer demand. Again, it is unchanged for three months, and almost identical to the MSI recorded one year ago and two years ago.
click for larger image	Days on Market (DOM) Days on Market in July is virtually unchanged for the past 6 months. It is also virtually unchanged from July 08 & 09.
click for larger image	Median Sales Price: House & Condo Though median price has jogged up and down over the past 13 months, it has basically been stable. The median price in July 2010 is virtually the same as in July 2009.

$1,150,000 //Hayes Valley //Oak Street BR/BA: 0/0 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Hayes Valley Triplex, Top Floor Vacant Owners Unit, 3 Large Flats, Period details throughout, Perfect for owner-occupier or investor.

$1,070,000 //Duboce Triangle // Belcher St. BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Top floor contemporary condo, in 3-unit building, built in 2007. Open living/dining room areas with state-of-the-art kitchen. Spacious bedrooms with a bonus room; perfect for a den/office. Private deck and roof top terrace.

$999,000 //Lower Pac Heights // Sutter BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Newer Condo in a 3 unit building, bright, spacious open floor plan, large private roof top terrace.

$875,000 // Noe Valley// Alvarado BR/BA: 2/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Great mid century top-floor condo on Alvarado and Noe, close to 1300 square feet with direct access to outdoor space.

$759,000 //Lower Pacific Heights/ Buchanan BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Lovely 2bd 1ba PLUS large office condo located just steps from Fillmore Street. Period details throughout, open floor plan with leased and deeded patio – great for entertaining!

$739,000 // Miraloma Park // El Sereno Court BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Incredibly charming home nestled in a very special cul-de-sac with breathtaking views from the living and dining rooms. Lots of unfinished space off the garage. First time on the market since the original sale.

$649,000 //Cow Hollow // Van Ness BR/BA: 1/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Remodeled Kitchen, Wonderful views of the GG Bridge from Living, Kitchen and Bedroom.

$599,000 // Lake // 6th Avenue BR/BA: 3/1.5 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Shingle-Style Edwardian TIC flat with updated kitchen and baths and shared yard. 3rd year in condo lottery – Great seller financing – Low rate and OK for 10% down buyers. FIRST OPEN-Sunday 8/29.

$580,000 //Potrero Hill // 23rd St. 2 BR/ BA: 1/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Really pretty Victorian condominium in 2-condo bldg. This is lower unit. Really charming shared garden in rear. Big extra storage space and big parking space for this unit.

$499,000 //Union Square // Post Street BR/BA: 1 / 1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Beautiful Art Deco Bldg-10th Floor-City Views- Remodeled One Br./One Ba.-COOPERATIVE Apt. at the Crown Towers located in the heart of San Francisco-two blocks from Union Square! (leased pkg. available 1 block away).

Pocket Listings:
$1,599,000 // Glen Park // 181 Randall BR/BA: 3/3 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Grand, restored Victorian view home on a quiet street with sustainably landscaped walk-out garden. Great Noe adjacent location.

$449,000 // Sutterfield // Sutterfield BR/BA: 1/1PKG: 1 Brief Description: Junior 1 bedroom on the 8th floor with city views. Approximately 650SF. This was a model unit, so there are many upgrades. Granite & stainless in the kitchen. Pristine condition. Washer/Dryer hook ups in the unit.

$TBD //Alamo Square // McAllister BR/BA: 3/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: 1740 sq ft, Beautiful, remodeled, Queen Anne Victorian.

Market trend charts that track by month and by quarter are more useful, but these weekly-bar charts are snapshots of most recent activity.

Homes Accepting Offers: Relatively stable


Homes For Sale: Declining as summer proceeds. As is typical.

New Listings Coming on Market: Declining as summer proceeds. As is typical. Usually the next big rush of new listings occurs after Labor Day.


Sold Listings vs. Expired/Withdrawn Listings: for the past 3 weeks, more listings are expiring or being withdrawn than closing escrow.


Percent of Listings Accepting Offers: Relatively stable

Median Sales Price for SF Houses: for the week ending August 15th, the median sales price was almost exactly the average median over the past 6 months.

What factors were considered when drafting new elementary attendance areas?

• Balancing enrollment with the size of the school.
• This included taking into account the size and location of schools, where students live now and where enrollment changes are expected in the future, historical choice patterns, and historical enrollment patterns.
• Avoiding major roads, highways, and natural topography such as parks.
• Proximity and creating single, undivided attendance areas around a school (i.e., avoiding non-contiguous attendance areas).
• Supporting SFUSD preschool to Kindergarten pathways.
• Maximizing diversity. This included taking neighborhood demographics into consideration.

http://sfusd.ggnet.net/resources/changes.php

16030 Broadway Terrace, Oakland
$1,798,000

Chase International // Lake Tahoe, Reno, Truckee and Squaw Valley

2855 E Lakeridge Shores, Reno, NV
$1,849,000

455 Fairfield Blvd, Incline Village, NV
$3,750,000

15580 Glacier Way, Truckee, CA
$1,895,000

11271 Alder Hill Road, Truckee, CA
$1,577,000

3600 West Lake Blvd., Homewood, CA
$2,850,000

1640 South Peak Dr., Glenbrook, NV
$3,995,000

Empire Realty Associates// Diablo, Lamorinda and Tri-Valley Areas

2345 Mt Diablo Scenic Blvd., Diablo, CA
$2,495,000

Paragon Real Estate // San Francisco

481 Day Street, San Francisco (Noe Valley)
$1,695,000

85 Buena Vista Terrace, San Francisco (Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights)
$2,595,000

$985,000 //Potrero Hill // Arkansas BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: FAB location, sweet home, gorgeous deck and garden Property Website (if any): www.363Arkansas.com.

$799,000 //Inner Richmond //Confidential Address BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Top floor Marina style remodeled condo.

$699,000 // SOMA // Dow Place BR/BA: 1/1.5 PKG: 1 Brief Description: This 2 level loft condominium has almost 1,300 SF and the largest floor plan in the building. Set at the Southeast corner of the building with downtown views and loads of light. FIRST OPEN is Sunday, Sep 13.

$695,000 //Central Richmond //Confidential Address BR/BA: 2/1.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Top Floor Marina Style remodeled condo, all remodeled.

$575,000 //Cole Valley // Confidential Address BR/BA: 1/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Gorgeous condo in heart of Cole Valley in 6 unit building. Lsd pkg within building, has been secured since purchase in ’04- will remain.

Pocket Listings:
$2,150,000 // Noe Valley // Confidential/ Call Agent BR/BA: 4/2.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Expertly designed by award winning Zack/De Vito Architects in 2004, this dramatic light infused 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath modern townhouse consists of clearly organized spaces with a focus on details and timeless finishes. The immense living space is impressive and is accentuated with polished concrete floors, soaring ceilings, exposed steel beams and opens to the landscaped tiered gardens.

$1,095,000 // Lake District // 7th Ave BR/BA: 3+/1.5 PKG: 2 Brief Description: Large two story 3+ bedroom top-floor condo in a gorgeous Arts & Crafts building on a beautiful block just off Lake St. Remodeled kitchen & bath, excellent floor plan, bright & open, 2 large decks, office/family room, in-unit w/d, large shared yard, and close to Mt Lake Park. Easy to show.

$799,000 // Sunset // 19th Ave (x Kirkham) BR/BA: 3/2 plus studio penthouse PKG: 1 Brief Description: Built in 2000, this bright and spacious 3bd /2ba (plus studio penthouse) condo is just a block away from Irving St. shops and restaurants. Great layout, ~2,000 sq.ft., in-unit w/d, 2 roof decks. Condo will be vacant and studio penthouse w/separate entrance is currently tenant occupied at $1,200/mo. Easy to show.

$795,000 //Lower Pacific Heights // Confidential/Call Agent BR/BA: 2/1 PKG: 0 Brief Description: Lovely 2bd 1ba plus large office condo located just steps from Fillmore Street. Period details throughout, open floor plan and deeded patio – great for entertaining! Leased parking.

$TBD // Potrero Hill // 19th Street BR/BA: 3/2 PKG: 1 Brief Description: 3200 square-foot contemporary home on Potrero Hill’s North Slope with spectacular panoramic views. Very convenient to shops and restaurants of 18th Street.

$TBD// Russian Hill // Broadway BR/BA: 3/2 & 2/1 PKG: 1 Brief Description: Fabulous Edwardian 2 units with original woodwork & large lot. 1 vacant 1 tenant occupied. Great Location. Ready end of month.